(Bloomberg) — Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak will set out a new crisis plan to protect jobs and rescue businesses as the coronavirus outbreak forces the U.K. to return to emergency measures.
With Covid-19 spreading rapidly again, Sunak is having to provide more state support to avoid a surge in unemployment — just at the moment he had planned to scale back an already huge package of aid.
Rishi Sunak departs Downing Street in London on Sept. 24
Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg
The chancellor has scrapped a planned autumn budget and will set out in Parliament on Thursday what he calls his “winter economy plan” to safeguard jobs in the months ahead.
“We are going to continue supporting the economy as much as we can,” Health Secretary Matt Hancock told BBC radio on Thursday. “We’re not able to support every job and every business, but what we’re trying to do is put in the absolute maximum economic support that is possible.”
While Treasury officials were tight-lipped about what measures may be included in the announcement, the chancellor has been studying a range of proposals from business groups, think tanks and unions. They include:
Extending the year-long business rates holidayFurlough extensions targeted only at the worst-hit sectors, such as aviation and eventsFurther deferrals of VAT paymentsCutting employers’ national insurance payments
Extra state cash for wages and loans for firms will put pressure on the public finances. But after Prime Minister Boris Johnson imposed fresh restrictions on the economy to tackle Covid-19 this week, Sunak has little room for maneuver.
“His challenge is explaining to businesses and workers how they’re going to have sufficient income to get them over the next few months of coronavirus restrictions,” said Nicky Morgan, a Conservative peer and former Treasury minister. “There are so many sectors that are unable to open in the way they need to, and that means he doesn’t have much of a choice.”
As he tries to pull the economy out of its worst recession in more than a century, Sunak will have to balance demands for extra support with the need to keep a grip on the public finances.
The national debt surpassed 2 trillion pounds ($2.6 trillion) for the first time this year. But he also has to contend with a pandemic that’s forced fresh restrictions on the general public.
The chancellor won plaudits for innovative measures to support workers and companies during the first spike in the pandemic in March. But these programs are scheduled to close in coming weeks.
The loss of state support threatened to undermine the U.K.’s economic recovery at a time when ministers are again tightening restrictions on commercial activity to curb the spread of the disease.
The opposition Labour Party and business groups demanded the chancellor lay out plans to replace his flagship furlough program, which is due to close on Oct. 31, or face a wave of job losses.
Among the options Sunak is considering is a German-style “short hours” program to top up the pay of workers who return to their jobs part-time. It would replace the furlough program, which has paid more than 9 million workers up to 80% of their wages at a cost to the Treasury of more than 39 billion pounds so far.
Read More: Explaining Kurzarbeit, or Saving Jobs the German Way: QuickTake
Under the plans, employers would pay staff for the hours worked, and the cost of the remaining hours not worked would be split between workers, employers and the government, people familiar with the discussions said. Separate help could be targeted at companies most severely affected by the restrictions, they said.
The Treasury declined to comment on the specific proposals, though an official said Sunak has promised to “act in creative and effective ways” to support jobs.
“I’ve called 40 times for the Chancellor to look into introducing a system of targeted wage support like that which operates in Germany,” Labour Shadow Chancellor Anneliese Dodds said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “It looks like he’s going to do that today,” she added. “We really need to see much quicker action, and effective action.”
People familiar with the matter said the chancellor is also planning to extend the deadline for new applicants to several state-backed loan programs, until at least the end of November.
“He’s got an unenviable task,” said Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec Bank Plc. “He has got to balance out the need to keep the economy going and a medium-term requirement to keep the public finances on track and maintain the U.K.’s fiscal credibility.”
Pubs and Restaurants
Though Sunak unveiled measures in the summer to support the hospitality and leisure industries, these sectors are likely to be hit more than most by new requirements outlined Tuesday for pubs and restaurants to close at 10 p.m. and for office staff to work from home.
“That is where the concentration of job losses is going to be,” Resolution Foundation Chief Executive Torsten Bell told Parliament’s work and pensions committee on Wednesday. “That is where our crisis sits.”
Johnson warned the new pandemic rules may be in place for six months, prompting a backlash from businesses, who urged the chancellor to save them from “ruin.” It also left economists warning the U.K.’s recovery from its record slump in the second quarter is in peril, while the number of new daily virus infections is now close to its peak again.
The chancellor said on Twitter his emergency plans would “continue protecting jobs through the winter.”
“The fact there isn’t going to be a budget clearly means that the economic outlook is incredibly uncertain,” said Morgan. “It also means that it’s impossible to make any immediate medium to long-term decisions about the public finances and how you might begin to repair that.”
(Updates with Hancock comment in fourth paragraph, Dodds in 16th)
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