Where Does Higher Education Go Next?

The Covid-19 pandemic has permanently changed higher education. While other sectors may rebound to pre-pandemic conditions and some may disappear forever, our nation’s colleges and universities are most certainly going to rebound to something that looks quite different from just one year ago. There is upside and downside to this fact. The upside: change was needed and perhaps long overdue. The downside: it’s expensive and not everyone will be successful.

The pandemic hit at a time when higher education already was facing tremendous financial, demographic, and public perception challenges. There were growing questions about value, return-on-investment, relevance, and need. Colleges and universities seemed increasingly out of touch with market needs and preparing students for jobs as well as for career success. Lost, at least on large segments of the population, was the cherished notion that college was for expanding one’s mind, evolving one’s view of the world, and developing one’s skills for critical thinking and lifelong learning. Colleges and universities have adapted in recent decades to include career-preparation, internships and other professional engagement opportunities, and skills training ranging from communications to coding. Still, the perception of the disconnect between higher ed and “the real world” endures, and perhaps widens as the pace of change in traditional higher lags behind that of the rest of the world. Somewhat ironically, the rapid advances in technology, often developed at our research universities, are not universally reflected in the pedagogy, instructional delivery modalities, commitment to access and affordability, or missions of many of our colleges and universities. And the commitment to provide career services and other connections to the real world are often met with resistance by some members of the faculty.

Colleges and universities have been facing financial challenges for decades. Expenses (whether mandated, bargained, or self-imposed to maintain market competitiveness) have risen faster than revenues (as colleges do all they can to moderate tuition increases and keep costs affordable). Efforts to contain the former and grow the latter have reached their respective limits within this traditional institutional and organizational structure. Years of incremental cuts, often made across the institution to minimize pushback in organizations built around a system of shared governance, have left many schools at the bare minimum to deliver on their mission and maintain all required and/or expected services for students. And serious efforts to grow revenue likely have achieved all that they can at this point (e.g., distance learning, continuing education, executive education, summer semester, summer campus programming, conferences and events, international enrollments). In their current structure and organization, these institutions can accommodate neither more cuts nor more creative pursuits of new revenue streams. They are maxed out. They are landlocked and gridlocked in their current configuration. 

Then came Covid-19. Colleges and universities have been exemplary in their responses, their commitments to students and communities, and their ability to adapt. But the costs have been enormous, at a time when few colleges could afford them. CARES Act funding will offset some, but not all, of the one-time costs. Reported institutional estimates of total costs (expenses and lost revenue) due to the pandemic have ranged from the tens of millions to the many hundreds of millions for 2020 alone. Some of the largest universities having medical centers and very large research operations are now reporting billion dollar losses. And it remains unclear whether losses will continue to accrue in spring 2021. So much is still uncertain. But one thing is certain: colleges and universities have been responsive and responsible. They have risen to the challenges of ensuring continuity in delivery of instruction, providing for the education and safety of their students, and working closely and collaboratively with their communities to ensure mutual safety.

But the pandemic laid bare long-standing budget challenges at these institutions and most certainly exacerbated the same. The need for change, long existing but slow in coming, has never been more obvious or more acute. And most colleges and universities no longer have the luxury of time. The pace of change (long-needed and slowly made) must now be accelerated, significantly. While some industry sectors are comfortable and even skilled with rapid change, higher education is not. The budget realities, the potential for permanent enrollment losses, and the ongoing expected costs of delivering on mission (educational, research, and/or medical) in the post-pandemic world underscore this need for rapid change.

There will be attrition. Some colleges will not make it. We are already seeing this play out across the country, especially with smaller liberal arts colleges. There will be consolidation and mergers. And there will be colleges and universities that adapt and continue to thrive. US higher education, considered by most to be the best in the world, will not fail. But it will suffer without significant changes, quickly. Change must be both an expectation and a shared commitment of faculty, administrators, and boards.

What’s next for our great colleges and universities depends on them. Those that have the will, the commitment, and the systemic capacity for making needed change will adapt and lead the way. The latter may require the greatest changes to be made. This will challenge many long-standing traditions and even pillars of the academy: shared governance, tenure, the academic calendar, disciplines, and college organization. Views and positions on the definition of a degree, time and path to degree completion, admissions criteria, industry engagement, experiential education, and more may need to be re-examined.

What’s next? Stay tuned. Colleges and universities (those that can) will respond, adapt, and thrive. They have every reason, and now little choice.