Development of a probabilistic early health warning system based on meteorological parameters

Observed cases of MAL and ADD

The actual recorded weekly mean of MAL and ADD cases along with the climatological rainfall (hereafter R/F), maximum temperature (hereafter TMx) and minimum temperature (hereafter TMn) over PNE and NGP regions are shown in Fig. 1 (X axes represent the weeks of a calendar year and Y axes for R/F or TMx or TMn or average cases of MAL or ADD). The Fig. 1a and b represent climatological values of R/F, TMx and TMn over PNE and NGP respectively. It is seen that rainy season over PNE lasts from June to mid-October, whereas over NGP it lasts for June–September (JJAS). TMx and Tmin are higher over both the regions during pre-monsoon months of March–May and drop down during monsoon months (JJAS). Figure 1c and d show the MAL cases and Fig. 1e and f show the ADD cases over PNE and NGP respectively. It

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