ADP Jobs Number Increasing Divergence From Reality

It’s always like that.

Just as the thing you lost is found in the last place you look so economic statistics start to go a bit funny just when you want to use them. We even have Goodhart’s Law about this – when a measure becomes a target it ceases to be a good measure. Sure, not entirely the same but containing the same exasperation with the universe as the first two.

So it is with certain of our estimations of what unemployment is going to be. We have the weekly initial claims numbers, allied with that we have an estimation of the unemployment rate. Then we’ve the monthly jobs numbers which we take to be the accurate ones. The monthly ones are preceded by the ADP numbers which are projections from their payroll customers over the rest of the working economy. All of our different numbers use different sources

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